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Deterrence in the 21st Century

In this book, the author calls for a renewed intellectual effort to address the relevance of the traditional concepts of first strike, escalation, extended deterrence, and other Cold War-era strategies in today's complex world of additional superpowers e. The author draws upon the lessons of the bipolar Cold War era to illustrate new concepts of deterrence that properly account for the variety of nuclear actors, the proliferation of missiles and thermonuclear weapons, and the radical ideologies that all are part of the nuclear scene today. The onset of a particularly harsh winter appeared to coincide with a sizable decrease in cross-border infiltration.

There has been a notable reduction in Russian troop presence along the Ukraine-Russia border, and encouraging signals that Russian equipment, resupply, and training is no longer flowing as freely as before. We welcome this development, but remain vigilant over the possibility of renewed attempts to incite violence in Ukraine or elsewhere. In Western capitals, close observers of Russian politics suggested that the Kremlin might have chosen to temporarily reduce its direct level of activity in Ukraine in response to rising domestic discontent over the steady drumbeat of Russian combat casualties, which reached a crescendo in January when almost 60 Russian troops died of exposure after having been driven from their bunkers.

Nuclear deterrence in the century. Lessons from the cold ..|INIS

Others warned that this reprieve in violence was merely the result of a redirection of more forces toward the Syrian theater, and likely to be short-lived, predicting that conflict would resume with the advent of spring. In February , a Russian Kilo class submarine was briefly detected in the waters surrounding the Swedish island of Gotland. When a Swedish Visby class corvette was dispatched to the scene, a Russian Neustrashimy class frigate shadowed it for several hours. Meanwhile, even as Russia appeared to reduce its troop levels along the border with Ukraine, it enhanced its military presence in the Moldovan province of Transnistria, and in Belarus.

Another men, primarily drawn from elite Spetsnaz units, were sent to strengthen the existing Russian garrison in Transnistria. Commenting on these developments, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared:.

Nuclear Deterrence in the 21st Century: Lessons from the Cold War for a New Era of Strategic Piracy

As a responsible great power, Russia seeks to both enhance regional stability and protect the rights of Russian ethnic minorities. These deployments will help our partners in Belarus and Transnistria secure their borders and societies from attempts at destabilization. The association of Russian statehood with Russian-or Slavic- ethnicity was at the heart of anti-Yeltsin opposition throughout the s, and has returned with a vengeance under the reign of Vladimir Putin.

In the course of his speech , Dolgov repeatedly drew attention to what he referred to as the repression of Russian minorities in the Baltics, stating, for instance, that,.

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The problem of mass deprivation of citizenship in Latvia and Estonia remains a serious one. We consider it an unacceptable situation when a significant portion of the population of these countries lack fundamental political and socioeconomic rights. We demand that the international community put decisive pressure on the governments of Latvia and Estonia so that this shameful phenomenon will be once and for all eliminated from Europe.

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Two months earlier, Andrey Neronsky, the director of the Moscow Center of Russian Culture in Latvia, declared in an interview on a Russian nationalist website, that,. If events analogous to those in Ukraine were to begin in Latvia … it is extremely probable that fighters would be enough to end the existence of Latvia as a unified state. Latvia could split into two and possibly more antagonistic enclaves.

Its army is small, weakly armed, and not capable of carrying out a large-scale punitive operation.

Baltic defense analysts are well aware of the risks posed by such hybrid operations. In particular, they expressed concern over the challenges posed in terms of adopting a tailored response to foreign-inspired agitation. Latvian armed forces, for example, operate under strict rules that forbid them from engaging in internal security matters. She died in , and this book is her last work. As long as nuclear arms exist, the best strategy to confront their challenge is deterrence. With the end of the Cold War, instead of diminishing, the danger that someone somewhere will use nuclear weapons has increased, with the multiplication of players, the increasing sophistication of available nuclear weapons and the shift in the balance between such weapons and conventional arms.